I’m pleased to offer the Ten Surprises for 2026. This year over 80 MAI investment professionals participated in suggesting potential surprises. I also solicited outside experts. While we had a lot of participation, the end product is solely my imperfect crystal ball gazing and does not represent the official view of MAI. The 10 Suprises are intended to be thought-provoking “what ifs,” not an investment guide.
To make the list, the surprises had to have three characteristics:
- They had to be noteworthy, either for the market or for the world at large.
- They had to be thought of as unlikely by most people.
- They had to have a much greater chance of happening than most people suspect, in my opinion.
1. Déjà vu all over again for the stock market.
The tsunami of AI spending from healthy mega-cap technology companies continues. The stock market ignores warnings of a bubble and surges for a fourth straight year of double-digit gains. Nvidia earnings continue to surge, the stock rises 80% and it becomes the first $10 trillion market cap company. The economy avoids recession and the Federal Reserve cuts rates only once in 2026, as the economy strengthens.
2. Chinese thaw.
Following President Trump’s visit to Beijing in April, the U.S. and China have a rapprochement. Tariffs are lowered; Nvidia chips are sold to Chinese firms; and China agrees (once again) to buy massive amounts of agricultural products. Without an explicit promise, China takes steps to calm tensions with Taiwan and in the South China Sea. The Chinese stock market soars and becomes the best performing bourse of 2026.
3. Electricity becomes the new face of inflation.
Electricity prices rise by double digits in virtually every state, spurred by AI data center buildouts, the return of domestic manufacturing and a strong economy. It becomes a major political issue with no quick solution. Late in the year, a private company working with a university announces a major advance in fusion technology by creating a process that produces more energy than is used, which had previously only been done in tiny quantities.
4. The Islamic Revolution in Iran is over.
As the year begins, the Iranian rial continues to plunge in value and protests in Iran escalate, spreading from major cities to universities and then to rural areas. Rumors of ill health or a coup circulate, as the 86-year-old Supreme Leader is not seen in public for six weeks. With the country paralyzed, the government agrees to a ruling council that will include secular parties, ending 46 years of strict Islamic rule. The Supreme Leader “retires” and by the end of the year the new government eliminates its nuclear program in exchange for the ending of sanctions.
5. AI paves way for new drugs.
The societal benefits of artificial intelligence start to become tangible as pharmaceutical companies dedicate entire teams to AI-driven drug research. They claim AI can identify treatments that no one else was looking at, while at the same time saving thousands of man-hours and billions in research. Two companies announce promising trials on AI-derived molecules, one for cancer and one for male pattern baldness. The former has the potential to save lives, but the latter garners most of the headlines.
6. The Self-Driving Wars.
In the spirit of Coke versus Pepsi and IBM versus Apple, Waymo and Tesla square off in the race towards fully-autonomous driving. Tesla has many more cars on the road, gathering massive amounts of data, while Waymo has more advanced technology (including Lidar and redundant battery systems). The winner is…the consumer, who by the end of 2026 will have multiple choices to get from here to there without involving a single person with a driver’s license. Waymo goes public in October as its service becomes available in 15 cities, including Denver, its first location that includes the added challenge of snow.
7. Republicans Survive the Mid-terms.
The Republicans do better in the mid-term elections than expected, due to a strong economy and low gasoline prices. While they lose the House by a handful of seats, they actually pick up a seat in the Senate. Chuck Schumer steps down as Minority Leader and won’t stand for re-election in 2028. Talk of the now Democratically-controlled House impeaching President Trump is quickly squashed by leading Democrats, looking for a different way forward. JD Vance, supported by a re-invigorated Turning Point USA, continues to consolidate power and remains the leading candidate to replace President Trump.
8. The Venezuelan government falls.
In the Spring, Maduro is replaced by opposition leader Maria Machado, winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. President Trump makes the most out of the regime change, accomplished without U.S. troops on the ground, but with missile attacks, and pledges “the war on drugs” would continue, though many doubt that drugs were the reason for the ouster. U.S. oil companies announce contracts to operate in the country. In revenge, drug cartels launch a drone-led terrorist attack against Mar-a-Lago, which garners headlines but causes little damage.
9. Higher deficits lead to higher gold prices and higher interest rates.
Early in the year,Congress reaches a compromise on healthcare subsidies to avoid insurance rates skyrocketing, but that blows a hole in the budget and the U.S. deficit rises sharply. Gold prices follow suit and rise another 50%, nearing $7000 an ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond exceeds 5% by year end.
10. Oh Canada!
The Canadian national soccer team wins game after game in the 2026 World Cup, held in North America. They become “The World’s Team” in a combination of admiration for the underdog and anti-U.S. sentiment, with record-breaking TV ratings. Finally, on July 19, 2026, over 2 billion world-wide viewers watch the final game outside New York City. The Canadians beat Germany and win the World Cup for the first time.
As always, my best wishes for a safe, peaceful, and prosperous 2026.
Christopher C. Grisanti
Chief Market Strategist
Chris Grisanti is Chief Market Strategist at MAI Capital Management and also manages the firm’s Focused Equity Portfolio. For more than twenty years he led the investment management firm Grisanti Capital Management, which was acquired by MAI in 2020. He appears frequently on various financial TV and radio programs and is a graduate of Holy Cross College and Harvard Law School.
This article has been prepared by MAI for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Statements contained herein are speculative and not a guarantee of future events. Forward-looking statements are based on the author’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Opinions expressed herein reflect the author’s judgment and are subject to change based on economic, market and other conditions. It should not be assumed that this is a forecast of future events or that any security transactions, holdings, or sector discussed were or will be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal any investment performance discussed herein. Any statistics mentioned have been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed.
Past market experience is no guarantee of future results.
